For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democratic candidate won by almost 6 points. Janet Mills of Maine. Our newest ratings and updates, We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. Updated daily, Ron Johnson Re-Election Polling and Predictions, Mark Kelly Re-Election Polling and Predictions, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. Half of the Senate's thirty-four seats in the Missouri Senate were up for election every two years, with each Senator serving four-year terms.[1]. Its my view that the energy that generated this anti-woke boomlet on the right is dissipating. WebRacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. Continue with Recommended Cookies. California, Michigan, Kentucky and Montana also have abortion referendums on the ballot. Table 3 summarizes the accuracy of these predictions based on a variety of characteristics including the year of the election, the party predicted to win, incumbent vs. open seat contests, and the predicted margin of victory. Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. Do you think that some of these big climate and infrastructure investments which are going to spur green manufacturing jobs in some very red places can shift the paradigm on how working-class White people view climate change and government spending? Maggie Astor Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 59.3% chance of controlling the Senate. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Centrist anti-fascist and anti-communist. This legislative session has cemented him as an extremist. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Though Republicans have put forward weak candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, the wind is behind their backs heading into November 8. Hi there. , Gov. I talked with Rosenberg, who writes the Hopium Chronicles newsletter on Substack, about his optimism for 2024. First, DeSantis has to win the primary, which doesnt look very likely at this point. RCP House Map Race Changes. Four of the 6 contests that are expected to be very competitive are currently held by Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) while the other 2 (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) are currently held by Republicans. GOP Rep. Mark Amodei looks safe for reelection after surviving his primary. Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. In Wisconsin, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson jumped out to a lead earlier this fall, but the final polls suggest that Democrat Mandela Barnes remains in contention. Particularly in the 2 decisive Georgia Senate runoffs held in early January 2021, Donald Trumps visibility and highly publicized claims of widespread voting fraud involving absentee ballots may have served to motivate Democratic voters while suppressing turnout among some Republican voters concerned that their votes would not be accurately counted. Note: Win probabilities may not add up to 100 because of third-party candidates. Polls are now closed in Hawaii. State officials say that counting all of the votes may take several days. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Note: Includes special elections held during year of election or during previous year. Were forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each partys chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election. 2 The Associated Press has not called New Yorks race for governor but Gov. Districts where the margin of victory was under 10%: Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. The other interesting finding in Table 3 is that the large majority of erroneous predictions, 12 of 16, involved Democratic victories in contests that Republicans were expected to win. Greg Abbott brushed off a well-funded challenge from Beto ORourke, winning a third term as Texas governor. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Nov. 10, 2022, In Texas, majority-Hispanic counties also swung to the right, but to a much lesser degree than in Florida. The polls just closed in Montana, Utah and parts of Nevada, Idaho and Oregon. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. Nov. 17, 2022, The gap between the candidates for Arizona governor narrowed considerably after Nov. 8 as late absentee ballots were tallied, including ones dropped off on Election Day. The Rio Grande Valley swung sharply to the right in the last election. Well also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. Voters in Kentucky will decide whether to approve an amendment that would reject abortion rights in the State Constitution. Redistricting will change everything. Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Now, with President Biden announcing his reelection bid, Rosenberg is similarly arguing that despite Bidens age and anemic approval ratings, he is in a strong position to win in 2024 and possibly win big. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the Senate, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. Ron DeSantis won re-election in Florida, cementing Republicans power in a state that was once a key battleground. Alicia Parlapiano Figure 1 displays the distribution of Senate contests based on the margin of victory for winning candidate. Web2022. But in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats enter Election Day still in the hunt thanks to their candidates strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Bidens poor approval ratings. The final forecast lists six Toss Up races, one more than two years ago. See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous Clickme! What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. Senate Projection. Lazaro Gamio Here are the results that mattered most for abortion access. DeSantis outperformed Trump in Florida in every county that has nearly finished counting votes. Maggie Astor Web1 Predictions. contact info. Lazaro Gamio These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. Were tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Primary - both if Joe Biden decides to run for a second term, and if he opts out. We got to 55 percent in Michigan. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. Gingrich 2022 Prediction: Senate Will Go +3 to +5 With GOP Pickups in NH, NV, AZ & GA Without Runoff, +44 Seats In House. Lauren Boebert, incumbent in Colorados 3rd district, is in an unexpectedly close race in what was considered a safe Republican district. Over the past decade, however, we have seen that Republicans have blown several opportunities to pick up Democratic seats by nominating candidates who were either ideologically extreme or weighed down by personal controversies. Brian Kemp gained more votes compared to Trump in 2020 all across Georgia, beating Stacey Abrams by a more than seven-point margin. Colorados Third District is leaning toward Lauren Boebert, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump, according to our estimates. Independent variables were the Democratic margin in the current or most recent presidential election in the state, incumbency status (coded as +1 for Democratic incumbent, 0 for open seats, and -1 for Republican incumbents), and election type (-1 for Republican midterm, 0 for presidential, and +1 for Democratic midterm). Michael Bennet and Patty Murray, respectively, to fall. Follow along here Nov. 14, 2022, Three Republican House candidates who have supported QAnon underperformed compared with Trump, despite most House Republicans outperforming the former president. Republican Adam Laxalt is ahead in GOP-commissioned polling, though independent surveys still give Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto a chance. In two states, shifts in state power could lead to new restrictions. Looking for Bidens Approval Rating Map? Nov. 14, 2022, With Senator Cortez Mastos victory in Nevada, Democrats will retain Senate control, even if Republicans win a run-off election in Georgia. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. . Nov. 9, 2022, John Fetterman, the Democratic candidate for Senate, won by a smaller margin than Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate for governor. Table 1 summarizes the results of the 174 U.S. Senate elections held between 2012 and 2020, including special elections. And Kansas Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. As more races are called, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow. The latest Last updated Nov. 8, 2022 Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. WebBattle for the Senate 2022. Welcome to our. Jason Kao All rights reserved. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. However the state already bans abortions, and that is unlikely to change. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. As of now, its considered a toss Alicia Parlapiano Yet you also acknowledge that Democrats are underwater on the economy. Compared to Kemps reported votes, Walkers fell short in every county, but especially in the Atlanta area and its suburbs. Republicans have flipped four House seats in New York, two districts on Long Island and two in the Hudson Valley. If a Trump cheerleader is the chosen candidate, it is a Democrat guaranteed victory. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. 3 See also. U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2024 March 8, 2023 U.S. Senate, Washington, 2024 Feb. 21, 2023 U.S. Senate, Montana, 2024 Feb. 9, 2023 U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2024 avg. Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. Vermont- this state has consistently voted for Democrat senators and the incumbent Patrick Leahy has been serving since 1974. NV ) Create Your Own Map. Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats. Nov. 9, 2022, The feared Democratic collapse along the Rio Grande didnt materialize. The most recent examples of Republican candidates losing races they should have won occurred in 2020 when the GOP lost 2 contests in Georgia and another in Arizona by margins ranging from 1-3 points that they should have won by about 7 points according to our model. Does one of the candidates have a fully-booked 747 worth of baggage? Lazaro Gamio Lazaro Gamio Copyright The Economist Newspaper Limited 2022. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Can Democrats Keep Control in Midterms? The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. , Angie Craig, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Minnesotas Second Congressional District. Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. Voters in Vermont decided in favor of including abortion protections in their state constitution. More than 200 Republicans who questioned or denied the 2020 election results have won in the midterms so far. that guide every prediction he makes. Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring) Trumps strength in Ohio Given the uncertainty of the overall results of the 2022 Senate elections, I decided to conduct a seat-by-seat analysis of all 174 Senate races since 2012 to see what factors have influenced the results of these contests. Were tracking the remaining uncalled House races, and the most recently called races, as states continue to count the remaining votes. Nov. 8, 2022, These charts show how the reported vote margin (the dashed line) compares with our estimated final margin (the solid line, surrounded by bands of uncertainty) over time. Our House forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. Ignoring the jokes of Trumps August reinstatement, both Democrats and Republicans have started their ground work. Ipredictelections.. . Theres no question that our orientation this cycle should be around geographic and demographic expansion. 2024 Senate races. Alicia Parlapiano John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. Nov. 9, 2022, J.D. With Republicans enjoying a consistent lead of 2-3 points on the generic ballot according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, the results indicated that the GOP was very likely to gain enough seats in November to take control of the House of Representatives. Two of the biggest discrepancies between actual and predicted vote margins involved the same candidate: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. Republicans successfully defended 12 of their 16 open seats for a success rate of 75% while Democrats successfully defended 12 of their 17 open seats for a success rate of 71%. Todays voting will decide the balance of power in Congress. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Republican candidates won 83 out of 170 contested Senate races between 2012 and 2020, but the prediction model indicates that they should have won 91. Virginias Seventh District is one of three races in the state that could offer an early sign of whether the Democrats can retain control of the House. 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. Overall, the candidate of the winning presidential candidate in the state won 156 of 174 Senate contests during these years, a success rate of just under 90%. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles That could all change Tuesday. In Ariz., Mont., Neb. You deserve to hear our thinking. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, and Joe Lombardo, the Las Vegas-area sheriff who was endorsed by Donald Trump. As a rule, when the composition estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy. Republican John Duarte has inched in front of moderate Democrat Adam Gray, despite the fact this Central Valley district went for President Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020. What we expect this year Andrew Fischer Today, Democrats control the U.S. Senate by the slimmest of margins Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tiebreaking vote in a chamber thats divided 50-50. 2 References. The facts are that the country is better off. In the current 50-50 Senate, only 6 members represent states that voted for the opposing partys presidential candidate in 2020 3 Democrats (Ohios Sherrod Brown, West Virginias Joe Manchin, and Montanas Jon Tester) and 3 Republicans (Maines Susan Collins, Wisconsins Ron Johnson, and Pennsylvanias Pat Toomey). Finally, there is a clear midterm effect on Senate elections, with candidates from the party occupying the White House experiencing an average penalty of 5.4 points of margin. Yet Democrats often refrain from challenging right-wing culture-warring, as if they believe those are losing issues. While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse. Maggie Astor Alicia Parlapiano Dont punish people for it. Can they turn that around? 0 Days to Election. Abortion clearly shifted the playing field in some of these places, and so did the MAGA extremism of some of the GOP candidates. *, Maine Maggie Astor No Electoral College majority, House decides election. The reason I would even consider a chance for Republicans is similar to Louisiana for Democrats. In Arizona, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. Aside from that, the main action at this hour will be in the House, with a close race in Washingtons 8th District and at least half a dozen in California. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Here's a list of the ups anddowns: A more competitive national environment and some weaker GOP nominees mean neither party enters the final two months before the election with a significant advantage in the battle for Senate control. Current House. Ron DeSantis tends to fare better against President Biden among college-educated Whites than Donald Trump does. In these elections, it was not the unpopularity of the GOP challengers that explained the discrepancies, but Manchins extraordinary popularity as a former governor and relatively conservative Democrat. The data in Table 1 indicate that a couple of the key factors influencing the outcomes of Senate contests during these years were incumbency and state presidential partisanship. One of the tightest governors races in the country is between Gov. Jennifer Rubin: Tammy Baldwin has picked the lock on split-ticket voters. GOP Rep. Rick Allen never faced a real threat to his reelection. Seth Magaziner, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Rhode Islands Second Congressional District. After facing credible charges of child molestation, Moore went on to lose the general election to Democrat Doug Jones, a civil rights lawyer and former U.S. Attorney. New Hampshire- It is a state of predominantly moderate whites. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Democratic incumbents (87%) and Republican incumbents (88%) were equally successful. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. These differences in results reflected differences in the partisan makeup of the 3 classes of Senate seats as well as differences in the national political environment at the time of each election. RCP Gov Map Race Changes. The race for North Carolinas open Senate seat is leaning toward Representative Ted Budd, a Republican, according to our estimates. In a previous article in the Crystal Ball, I examined the outlook for the 2022 House and Senate elections at the national level based on the generic ballot forecasting model. Nov. 9, 2022, Democratic House candidates outperformed Biden in several Michigan districts, bucking a rightward trend and maintaining seven of their seats. , Gov. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues This has to be the driving goal of the party this cycle. Another 15%, about 5 per election cycle, were decided by a margin of less than 5 points. These mirages show that vote margins early in the night can change significantly. Soon, 14 Revolutionary War soldiers will finally rest in peace, Floridas book-ban frenzy targets Nora Roberts, and shes not happy, How Trump made it cool for Republicans to hate their own party, Regulators seize ailing First Republic Bank, sell remains to JPMorgan. I will still predict that Democrats will retain the seat, assuming Chris Sununu will run again for governor and a candidate with Trumps blessings runs. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Nov. 8, 2022, Arizona has multiple races featuring Republicans who have questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Beto ORourke performed better than expected in these majority-Hispanic counties. Possibly. Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. Does the incumbent in the race consistently overperform their partys baseline in the district? and Pa., competitive state races with consequences for abortion remain too close to call. The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. However, there was a noticeable discrepancy between the success rates of Republican and Democratic candidates in states won by their partys presidential candidate. Most polls have closed in Alaska, but Alaska doesnt release results until after its last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern. Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, is facing a strong challenge from the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka. J.D. Nov. 9, 2022, Alaska has competitive races for both the Senate and the House, neither of which is a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. The polls are now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and several other states. Im Fivey Fox! Lazaro Gamio . Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the House, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. By doing that, hes going to create a permission structure for the whole Democratic Party to follow him. Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Missouri_State_Senate_election&oldid=1152538134, 2022 state legislature elections in the United States, Short description with empty Wikidata description, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from April 2023, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 30 April 2023, at 21:09. Democrats have the potential to flip 6 seats in the Senate in 2022. that guide every prediction he makes. Lazaro Gamio Gretchen Whitmer's poll numbers have been more durable than other Democrats'. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. . Beyond the wins and losses, another prominent aspect of recent Senate elections is the overall lack of competition. According to the results displayed in Table 5, only a small minority of Senate contests in 2022 are likely to be highly competitive. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. Alicia Parlapiano Read more Nov. 9, 2022, Majority-Hispanic counties in Florida voted to reelect Gov. These charts show how our forecasts have changed over the course of the night. It remains to be seen whether any of the current crop of GOP candidates, many of whom are running as staunch Trump loyalists and some of whom have endorsed the Big Lie of the stolen 2020 election, will suffer a similar fate.
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